L’auteur rapporte l’avis de trois éminents climatologues qui pensent que nous allons sur un refroidissement du climat, et non vers un réchauffement. La période du réchauffement serait achevée.

Forget Global Warming--Mini Ice Age May Be on Its Way

By E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D.

Cornwall’s Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming couldn’t come at a better time--sign today!

You know the wheels are falling off the manmade global warming bandwagon when even the mainstream media begin publishing reports of major scientists who challenge it.

The UK’s MailOnline did just that this week under the headline The mini ice age starts here. Lead paragraph? “The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.”

Right. MailOnline reporter David Rose doesn’t call them “the world’s leading climate skeptics.” He calls them “some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists"--and he goes on to cite “Mojib Latif, a leading member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),” “Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group,” and “William Gray, emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University.”

Contrary to fears of inexorably diminishing Arctic sea ice, Rose cites the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center as reporting that “Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007.” Though snow’s been unusual for most of the southern half of the United Kingdom in recent decades, the Mail published the accompanying satellite photo of Great Britain during the recent cold snap. The island is essentially all covered with snow.

Rose reported record lows as far south as Cuba--something I can attest to, living near Miami in south Florida, where we experienced sub-freezing weather over the weekend. He quoted Tsonis as saying that last week 56% of the United States was covered by snow--something that hasn’t happened in several decades. And the “‘Arctic oscillation’--a weather pattern that sees the development of huge ‘blocking’ areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south . . . is at its strongest for at least 60 years. As a result, the jetstream--the high-altitude wind that circles the globe from west to east and normally pushes a series of wet but mild Atlantic lows across Britain--is currently running not over the English Channel but the Strait of Gibraltar.”

Consequently, most of the Northern Hemisphere is much colder this winter than it’s been in decades--and the Southern Hemisphere is cooler, too.

According to Rose, Latif, Tsonis, and other scientists attribute the cold shift primarily to a shift in the world’s dominant ocean circulations--the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation--from a warm phase to a cool phase, something that happens about every 20 to 30 years. “The scientists’ predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise. They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a ‘warm mode’ as opposed to the present ‘cold mode’.”

That’s a point made by Dr. Roy W. Spencer in the science chapter of the Cornwall Alliance’s new document A Renewed Call to Truth, Prudence, and Protection of the Poor: An Evangelical Examination of the Theology, Science, and Economics of Global Warming and illustrated in the graph below.

 
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an index of weather patterns over the North Pacific Ocean, 
has coincided with periods of warming and cooling over the last century (JISAO, 2008).

“A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles,” said Latif, “perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer. The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling.”

Tsonis also believes that the ocean current cycles dominated global climate change in the 20th century, including the post-1970s, the period many point to as driven by human greenhouse gas emissions, but he doesn’t venture to attribute specific percentages to the natural and human causes. “I do not believe in catastrophe theories,” Rose quoted him as saying. “Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust the computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will rise by a given amount. These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give readings for 100 years.”

Gray went farther: “Most of the rise in temperature from the Seventies to the Nineties was natural. Very little was down to CO2--in my view, as little as five to ten per cent.”

Gray, Tsonis, and Latif all agreed that the findings about the ocean currents undermined the credibility of the computer climate models on which the IPCC and other alarmists rely.

Such findings support the Cornwall Alliance’s view that global climate changes are overwhelmingly natural, not manmade, that human contribution to them is not dangerous, and that the effort to fight global warming is needless, with costs far exceeding benefits.

Source : http://www.cornwallalliance.org/blog/item/forget-global-warming-mini-ice-age-may-be-on-its-way/

Voici des liens vers des sites où la question du climat est traité avec un peu plus d'objectivité :

http://climatescience.blogspot.com/

This site is a reference point for those with a cool head for climate science, arguably the most political science ever. When the government and most of the media concentrate on alarmism, this site is the antidote for those who don't believe the scare stories - you are not alone!

http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/

Le site de la International Climate Science Coalition

Voici ce que nous conseille un grand constructeur automobile 

Pour rouler plus économique, veillez à 

1. Limiter les surcharges de poids et le chargement du toit Un box à ski vide ou une galerie pour vélo vide sur votre toit augmente la consommation de carburant de 10 à 30% à une vitesse de 120km/h.

2. Préparer votre trajet

Vous évitez ainsi les détours inutiles. Un bon système de navigation peut aider.

3. Utiliser le vélo pour les petits déplacements En adoptant ce réflexe, non seulement vous réduirez vos émissions de CO², mais en plus, vous entretenez votre condition physique, tout bénéfice pour votre santé.

4. Passer rapidement à la vitesse supérieure

Si vous roulez à l’essence, vous pouvez changer de vitesse dès 2.000 à 2.500 trm. Si vous roulez au diesel, entre 1.500 et 2.000 trm.

5. Limiter l’utilisation des accessoires électroniques

N’utilisez l’airco et le chauffage arrière uniquement lorsque c’est nécessaire. L’airco augmente votre consommation de 10 à 25%.

6. Rouler défensivement

Suivez le trafic et essayez d’anticiper ce qui se passe devant vous.

7. Rouler les fenêtres fermées

Si vous avez trop chaud, il vaut mieux mettre le système de ventilation en marche qu’ouvrir les fenêtres. Des fenêtres à moitié ouvertes augmentent votre consommation moyenne de 5%.

8. Ne pas laisser tourner le moteur pour rien

Coupez votre moteur si vous devez vous arrêter plus de 30 secondes.

9. Contrôler la pression de vos pneus Une pression des pneus trop faible provoque une augmen­tation de la consommation (jusqu’à 3% par 0,5 bar). La pression de vos pneus diminue de 20% en 5 mois.

10. Faire vérifier régulièrement votre voiture

Et voici ce que nous conseille un fournisseur d’énergie

1. Je boude mon sèche-linge : un des électros les plus gourmands en énergie ... lorsqu’on dispose d’un jardin et que le soleil brille !

2. Je dégèle le congélateur : il a besoin de l’être régulièrement. Une épaisseur de givre de 2 mm d’épais­seur entraîne une surconsommation électrique d’environ 10%, 5 mm de givre : 30% et 1 cm de givre réduit le rendement de l’appareil de 75% !

3. Dans la salle de bain : avec le retour des beaux jours, on se sent moins frileux le matin. On diminuera donc le chauffage mais aussi la température de l’eau chaude. 40 à 45° suffisent largement.

4. Changer les joints défectueux des robinets : surtout ceux de l’eau chaude. Car une fuite d’une goutte d’eau chaude par seconde pendant un mois, c’est 800 litres d’eau chauffés pour rien !

5. J’opte pour une chaudière au gaz sans veilleuse : si je dois changer ma chaudière et que je dispose d’une alimentation en gaz, sans veilleuse une chaudière consomme 120 m³ de gaz en moins par an !

6. J’interdis l’ordinateur en veille : je branche l’ordinateur et ses périphériques sur une multiprise équipée d’un interrupteur et je coupe complètement l’alimentation à chaque fin d’utilisation. Pourquoi ? L’ordinateur n’aime pas la chaleur. Or il en dégage beaucoup, raison pour laquelle son moteur est équipé d’un système de refroidissement. Le laisser tourner à vide dans une pièce correctement chauffée, augmente la chaleur de la pièce ...

7. J’évite de laisser mes appareils en position de veille : les petites lampes rouges qui me rappellent qu’ils sont sur secteur sont peut-être bien jolies ... mais cela se paie au compteur !

8. Je baisse la température ambiante de 1°C : 1° de moins, c’est 7% d’économie ! En été le soleil chauffe davantage les pièces, en hiver une petite laine n’est pas désagréable ...

Voici des articles de la presse anglophone qui méritent l'attention :

Sur le "climategate" :

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107104574572091993737848.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/27/the-global-cooling-cover-up/?feat=home_editorials)

Un exemple édifiant :

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/blog.html?b=fullcomment&e=lawrence-solomon-wikipedia-s-climate-doctor&s=Opinion

How Wikipedia’s green doctor rewrote 5,428 climate articles 

By Lawrence Solomon 

 The Climategate Emails describe how a small band of climatologists cooked the books to make the last century seem dangerously warm.

The emails also describe how the band plotted to rewrite history as well as science, particularly by eliminating the Medieval Warm Period, a 400 year period that began around 1000 AD. 

The Climategate Emails reveal something else, too: the enlistment of the most widely read source of information in the world — Wikipedia — in the wholesale rewriting of this history.

The Medieval Warm Period, which followed the meanness and cold of the Dark Ages, was a great time in human history — it allowed humans around the world to bask in a glorious warmth that vastly improved agriculture, increased life spans and otherwise bettered the human condition.

But the Medieval Warm Period was not so great for some humans in our own time — the same small band that believes the planet has now entered an unprecedented and dangerous warm period. As we now know from the Climategate Emails, this band saw the Medieval Warm Period as an enormous obstacle in their mission of spreading the word about global warming. If temperatures were warmer 1,000 years ago than today, the Climategate Emails explain in detail, their message that we now live in the warmest of all possible times would be undermined. As put by one band member, a Briton named Folland at the Hadley Centre, a Medieval Warm Period “dilutes the message rather significantly.”

Even before the Climategate Emails came to light, the problem posed by the Medieval Warm Period to this band was known. “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period” read a pre-Climategate email, circa 1995, as attested to at hearings of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works. But the Climategate transcripts were more extensive and more illuminating — they provided an unvarnished look at the struggles that the climate practitioners underwent before settling on their scientific dogma.

The Climategate Emails showed, for example, that some members of the band were uncomfortable with aspects of their work, some even questioning the need to erase the existence of the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years earlier.

Said Briffa, one of their chief practitioners: “I know there is pressure to present a nice tidy story as regards ‘apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data’ but in reality the situation is not quite so simple. … I believe that the recent warmth was probably matched about 1,000 years ago.”

In the end, Briffa and other members of the band overcame their doubts and settled on their dogma. With the help of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the highest climate change authority of all, they published what became the icon of their movement — the hockey stick graph. This icon showed temperatures in the last 1,000 years to have been stable — no Medieval Warm Period, not even the Little Ice Age of a few centuries ago.

But the UN’s official verdict that the Medieval Warm Period had not existed did not erase the countless schoolbooks, encyclopedias, and other scholarly sources that claimed it had. Rewriting those would take decades, time that the band members didn’t have if they were to save the globe from warming.

Instead, the band members turned to their friends in the media and to the blogosphere, creating a website called RealClimate.org. “The idea is that we working climate scientists should have a place where we can mount a rapid response to supposedly ‘bombshell’ papers that are doing the rounds” in aid of “combating dis-information,” one email explained, referring to criticisms of the hockey stick and anything else suggesting that temperatures today were not the hottest in recorded time. One person in the nine-member Realclimate.org team — U.K. scientist and Green Party activist William Connolley — would take on particularly crucial duties.

Connolley took control of all things climate in the most used information source the world has ever known – Wikipedia. Starting in February 2003, just when opposition to the claims of the band members were beginning to gel, Connolley set to work on the Wikipedia site. He rewrote Wikipedia’s articles on global warming, on the greenhouse effect, on the instrumental temperature record, on the urban heat island, on climate models, on global cooling. On Feb. 14, he began to erase the Little Ice Age; on Aug.11, the Medieval Warm Period. In October, he turned his attention to the hockey stick graph. He rewrote articles on the politics of global warming and on the scientists who were skeptical of the band. Richard Lindzen and Fred Singer, two of the world’s most distinguished climate scientists, were among his early targets, followed by others that the band especially hated, such as Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, authorities on the Medieval Warm Period.

All told, Connolley created or rewrote 5,428 unique Wikipedia articles. His control over Wikipedia was greater still, however, through the role he obtained at Wikipedia as a website administrator, which allowed him to act with virtual impunity. When Connolley didn’t like the subject of a certain article, he removed it — more than 500 articles of various descriptions disappeared at his hand. When he disapproved of the arguments that others were making, he often had them barred — over 2,000 Wikipedia contributors who ran afoul of him found themselves blocked from making further contributions. Acolytes whose writing conformed to Connolley’s global warming views, in contrast, were rewarded with Wikipedia’s blessings. In these ways, Connolley turned Wikipedia into the missionary wing of the global warming movement.

The Medieval Warm Period disappeared, as did criticism of the global warming orthodoxy. With the release of the Climategate Emails, the disappearing trick has been exposed. The glorious Medieval Warm Period will remain in the history books, perhaps with an asterisk to describe how a band of zealots once tried to make it disappear.

Financial Post 

LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com 

Normal 0 0 1 32 184 1 1 225 11.512 0 0 0

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud. 

Sur : The Climate Science isn't settled :

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html

Mieux connaître le Dr Rajendra Pachauri, qui dirige le panel ONU sur le changement climatique :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6847227/Questions-over-business-deals-of-UN-climate-change-guru-Dr-Rajendra-Pachauri.html

Voir aussi dans le même journal :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/7062667/Pachauri-the-real-story-behind-the-Glaciergate-scandal.html

Voici des liens vers des articles de presse intéressants :

http://www.lalibre.be/economie/libre-entreprise/article/552632/quelles-lecons-pour-l-energie.html :

Quelles leçons pour l’énergie ?

Samuel Furfari

Mis en ligne le 04/01/2010

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/belgique/article/550063/le-rechauffement-pas-demontre.html

http://blog.lefigaro.fr/rioufol/2009/12/bloc-notes-separer-letat-de-la.html

http://ec.europa.eu/research/research-eu/63/article_6315_fr.html

Une approche chrétienne des questions du climat et de l’environnement à l’heure de Copenhague

Préambule

Le chrétien est gestionnaire de la planète. Ce mandat lui vient du Dieu Créateur (Dieu créa les êtres humains comme une image de lui-même; il les créa homme et femme. Puis il les bénit en leur disant : Ayez des enfants, devenez nombreux, peuplez toute la terre et dominez-la; soyez les maîtres des poissons dans la mer, des oiseaux dans le ciel et de tous les animaux qui se meuvent sur la terre. Genèse 1.27,28 BFC) et signifie que la sauvegarde de la terre est entre ses mains. Il n’en est pas le propriétaire—ni personnellement, ni par organisation humaine interposée. Un jour, il aura à rendre des comptes de la façon dont il s’est déchargé de ce mandat.